Statistikal signifikans
“Signifikant” min se i nɔ izi fɔ apin pan fɛr wil; i nɔ min “rial”, ɛn i nɔ min “prɔfit”.
P-valyu fɔ 0.05 min se fɛr wil go mek shep we nɔ ikwal so wan tɛm pan twɛnti. If yu luk twɛnti wil, wan go pas bay lɔk.
Wetin p-valyu na
Na di prɔbabilitimatematiksPrɔbabilitiDi chans fɔ wan rizɔlt, frɔm 0 to 1 ɔ frɔm 0% to 100%. Wan nɔmba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Rid ɔl → fɔ si difrɛns we big lɛk di wan we yu si ɔ mɔ, if di wil bin fɛr. I de tɔk bɔt di data ɔnda wan aydia, nɔto bɔt di wil. P-valyulabp-valyuDi prɔbabiliti fɔ si difrɛns we big lɛk di wan we yu si ɔ big pas am, if di wil bin fɛr.Rid ɔl → fɔ 0.03 de se: fɛr wil de du dis 3% pan di tɛm. I nɔ de se: chans de 97% se di wil gɛt bayas. Fɔ se di sɛkɔn tin, yu fɔ no fɔs aw wil we gɛt bayaslabWil we gɛt bayasWil we gɛt pɔblɛm na in bɔdi we mek sɔm pɔkit kin kam pas 1/37. I nɔ kɔmɔn, ɛn yu kin fɛn am nɔmɔ wit tawzin tawzin spin we yu dɔn rayt dɔn.Rid ɔl → kɔmɔn, ɛn na kasino dɛn tide dɛn rɛr bad bad wan. Na dat mek wan signifikant rizɔlt in wan ɛva mɔ fɔ bi lɔk pas fɔ bi tru tin we yu fɛn.
Bɔku kɔmpia
Ɛni tɛst we yu rɔn pan fɛr wil gɛt 5% chans fɔ pas na di 5% lɛvel. Tɛst twɛnti wil ɛn wan go pas. Tɛst wan wil insay twɛnti difrɛn tɛm ɛn wan go pas. Tɛst wan sampul wit 37 pɔkitikwipmɛntPɔkitWan pan di 37 smɔl ples dɛn wit nɔmba pan di rotɔ. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: slot, kɔp.Rid ɔl → grup, siks sɛktawilSɛktaPɔkit dɛn we de fala wan ɔda na wan pat fɔ di wil, nɔto grup na di bɛt tebul.Rid ɔl → grup ɛn tri kɔla grup, ɛn sɔntin go pas. Di mɛrɛsin na fɔ disayd di tɛst bifo yu luk di data, rɔn am wan tɛm, ɛn kɔnfɔm am pan nyu data. Bɔku tɛm, na di we we yu de luk ɔlsay fɔ fɛn wil we “gɛt bayas” mek di rizɔlt.
Signifikans ɛn aw i big
Big big sampul kin mek smɔl bayas we nɔ min natin tɔn signifikant. Pɔkit we de kam 1/36.5 instɛd fɔ 1/37 na rial difɛkt we go rich signifikans insay sɔm milyɔn spin, bɔt i go stil lɔs mɔni pan pemɔniPeWetin bɛt we win de gi yu, dɛn de tɔk am as “X to 1” ɔn tɔp di bɛt mɔni we kam bak.Rid ɔl → fɔ 35 to 1. Wetin impɔtant fɔ pleya na aw di ifɛkt big: ɛni pɔkit de kam 1/36 ɔ bɛtɛ, ɛn bay ɔmɔs? Di chi-skwɛ de tɛl yu bɔt di wil; na ɔmɔs tɛm di pɔkit de kam nɔmɔ de tɛl yu bɔt di bɛt.
Pawa
Di ɔda mistek na fɔ mis bayas we de de. Wit 1,000 spin, pɔkit we de kam 1/30 (bayas we big bad) de sho jɔs lɛk af di tɛm na di 5% lɛvel. Na di sayz fɔ di sampul, nɔto sɛns, de fiks dis. Di pej fɔ ɔmɔs tɛm yu tɛst de gi di nɔmba dɛn.
Wan standad we yu kin yuz
Fɔ mek bayas tɔk bi sɔntin we fit fɔ luk: wan tɛst we yu pik bifo, p < 0.01 instɛd fɔ 0.05, fɔ du am bak pan sampul we nɔ dipen pan di fɔs wan ɛn we big di sem we, ɛn afta yu du am bak, di pɔkit dɛn we de kam mɔ fɔ kam lɛk 1/34 ɔ bɛtɛ. Pan di ɔl istri fɔ di gem, dis standad dɔn rich jɔs sɔm smɔl tɛm, ɛn nɔba, as di rɛkɔd dɛn we pipul kin si de sho, pan wil we dɛn de mek naw ɛn we dɛn de kia fɔ.
Kwɛstyɔn dɛn
Na wetin pipul dɔn gri pan frɔm di 1920 dɛn. Natin nɔ spɛshal bɔt am; 0.01 na bɛtɛ limit we yu de luk bɔku wil.
Maybi i nɔ de gi rizɔlt dɛn we ikwal. I kin bi di dila in ifɛkt, mistek we dɛn rayt di rizɔlt, ɔ prɔblɛm we dɛn put di data. Du am bak.
Nɔ. I de tɛl yu se di distribyushɔn nɔ rayt. Sɛkta analisis ɛn aw di ifɛkt big de tɛl yu usay.
Ple wit Mat
Tray dɛn yusɛf fɔs. Ɛni ansa de ayd; opin am we yu rɛdi.
Dɛn se wan wil wit dɔbul zirowilZiroDi wan grin pɔkit we nɔ ivin-mɔni, dɔzin ɔ kɔlɔm bɛt nɔ kɔba; na usay di kasino advantej kɔmɔt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: wan ziro, 0.Rid ɔl → mek di fɔs dɔzinbɛtDɔzin1–12, 13–24 ɔ 25–36, i de pe 2:1.Rid ɔl → kam 742 tɛm insay 3,000 spin. Ɔmɔs standad diviyeshɔnmatematiksStandad diviyeshɔnDi skwɛ rut fɔ varians; di nɔmal distans bitwin wan rizɔlt ɛn di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt.Rid ɔl → dɔŋ di avrej dat de, ɛn ɔmɔs tɛm fɛr wil go du dat?
Sho di ansa
Ansa Lɛk 8.1 standad diviyeshɔn dɔŋ. Fɛr wil go du dat lɛk wan tɛm insay 3 × 10¹⁵ tray, we min se i nɔ go ɛva apin. Di ansa we dɛn print wit di kwɛstyɔn se 11.75; wi gɛt 8.07.
Di fɔs dɔzin gɛt 12 pan di 38 pɔkitikwipmɛntPɔkitWan pan di 37 smɔl ples dɛn wit nɔmba pan di rotɔ. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: slot, kɔp.Rid ɔl →. Insay 3,000 spin in avrej na 3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4 tɛm, wit sprɛd fɔ √(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.
742 de 205.4 dɔŋ di avrej: 205.4/25.5 = 8.07 sprɛd.
Fɛr wil de kam tri sprɛd shɔt lɛk wan tɛm insay 740 tray; et sprɛd shɔt, lɛk wan tɛm insay 3 × 10¹⁵ (bɛl kɔv, wan say). Ilɛk yu kɔnt se di pɔsin we de rid bin pik di wɔs wan pan tri dɔzin, natin we impɔtant nɔ de chenj. Rizɔlt lɛk dis de se di wil, ɔ di kɔnt, nɔ rayt. Pan wil wit wan ziro, di sem kɔnt go bi 9.0 sprɛd dɔŋ (avrej 973.0, sprɛd 25.6).
Smɔl jok fɔ ɛz di maynd
Wan pan twɛnti fɛr wil na “signifikant”. Na dat di nɔmba min.
Usay wi gɛt am frɔm
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, rulɛt kwɛstyɔn dɛn.