Stɛp bay stɛp: wan Martingale sɛshɔn
Tɛn dɔla pan rɛd, dɔbul am afta ɛni lɔs, na tebul we in limit na $500. Spin bay spin, wit di spin we ɛnd am.
Wan Martingale sɛshɔn we wi simyulet, wit $1,000 gambul mɔni. Fɔti-wan smɔl win, dɔn siks lɔs wan afta di ɔda, ɛn di tebul nɔ gri fɔ di sɛvin bɛt. Di sɛshɔn ɛnd wit $220 lɔs, afta wi bin dɔn de +$410. Na dat na wetin di sistɛm de du.
Di plan
Bɛt $10 pan rɛdbɛtRɛdIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 rɛd nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: rouge.Rid ɔl →. Afta lɔs, dɔbul am. Afta win, go bak to $10. Di tebul limittebulTebul limitDi smɔl ɛn di big bɛt we dɛn alaw. Na di big limit de stɔp prɔgrɛshɔn dɛn we de dɔbul.Rid ɔl → na $500, so di bɛt mɔni dɛn na 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, ɛn dɔn $640 bɛt we di tebul nɔ go gri fɔ. Siks lɔs wan afta di ɔda de brok di sistɛm; ɛni tray gɛt (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% chans fɔ mek dat apin, ɛn sɛshɔn we gɛt 100 spin gɛt lɛk 50 tray. Wetin fɔ ɛkspɛkt: lɛk 60% chans se i go brok insay 100 spin, ɛn lɔs fɔ $630 we dat apin.
Spin 1–30
Nɔmal MartingalestratɛjiMartingalePrɔgrɛshɔn we de dɔbul di bɛt afta ɛni lɔs. Luk di Stratɛji pat fɔ si wetin i de du ɛn wetin i nɔ de du.Rid ɔl →: wan te to tri lɔs wan afta di ɔda, ɛn ɛni wan ɛnd wit win we de gi +$10 nɛt. Na spin 30 wi dɔn gɛt 17 win, ɛni wan de klos wan sayk, ɛn wi de +$170. Di mɔs big bɛt mɔni te naw na $80, afta tri lɔs. I de fil lɛk mashin we de print $10 nɔt.
Spin 31–60
Na di sem tin bak, wit wan sayk we gɛt fɔ lɔs (bɛt mɔni go te $160, dɔn win) we put $310 pan di tebul fɔ smɔl tɛm ɛn i fil lɛk se na at. Afta 60 spin: 41 sayk dɔn kɔmplit, wi de +$410, ɛn di gambul mɔnimɔniGambul mɔniƆl di mɔni we yu dɔn put asay fɔ ple. Fɔ manej yu gambul mɔni min fɔ disayd ɔmɔs pan am yu go risk fɔ ɛni bɛt ɛn fɔ ɛni sɛshɔn.Rid ɔl → in mɔs lɔ pɔynt frɔm spin 30 na $1,040. Di istogram fɔ ɛni Martingale sɛshɔn de luk so fɔ mɔs pan in lɔng.
Spin 61–66
Lɔs Lɔs Lɔs Lɔs Lɔs Lɔs. Bɛt mɔni 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 lɔs. Di nɛks bɛt fɔ bi $640; di limit na $500. Di sistɛm dɔn brok. Wi kin bɛt $500 (ɛn if i win, wi stil go de $130 dɔŋ pan di sayk) ɔ go bak to $10 ɛn tek di lɔs. Siks blakbɛtBlakIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 blak nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: noir.Rid ɔl → ɔ zirowilZiroDi wan grin pɔkit we nɔ ivin-mɔni, dɔzin ɔ kɔlɔm bɛt nɔ kɔba; na usay di kasino advantej kɔmɔt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: wan ziro, 0.Rid ɔl → wan afta di ɔda gɛt prɔbabilitimatematiksPrɔbabilitiDi chans fɔ wan rizɔlt, frɔm 0 to 1 ɔ frɔm 0% to 100%. Wan nɔmba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Rid ɔl → 1.8% fɔ ɛni sayk. Wi bin dɔn rɔn lɛk 45 sayk. Di chans fɔ rich dis pɔynt sɔmsay insay 45 sayk na bin lɛk 55%. I nɔto bad lɔk; na di midul valyu.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- midul valyu −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Di akawnt
$410 ɔp afta 60 spin, $220 dɔŋ afta 66. Ɔl di mɔni we wi bɛt: lɛk $2,100 insay 66 spin, we pɔsin we bɛt $10 ɔltɛm bin fɔ bɛt $660. Lɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksLɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt tɛm ɔl di mɔni we yu bɛt; di avrej mɔni we yu de lɔs insay wan sɛshɔn ɔ wan tɛm.Rid ɔl → pan $2,100 ɔl di mɔni we yu bɛtmɔniƆl di bɛt mɔniƆl di mɔni we yu bɛt na wan sɛshɔn ɔ wan tɛm, wit di win mɔni we yu bɛt bak. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: handle, action.Rid ɔl → na $57; wi rial −$220 na lɛk wan tɔd pan wan standad diviyeshɔnmatematiksStandad diviyeshɔnDi skwɛ rut fɔ varians; di nɔmal distans bitwin wan rizɔlt ɛn di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt.Rid ɔl → ɔnda dat. Dat nɔ sɔprayz fɔ sistɛm we in distribyushɔn gɛt lɔng tel na di lɛf say. If wi bin stɔp na spin 60 wit win limitstratɛjiWin limitPrɔfit tagɛt we yu dɔn sɛt bifo, we yu go stɔp di sɛshɔn if yu rich am.Rid ɔl → fɔ $400, wi bin fɔ lɛf wit +$410, ɛn di nɛks sɛshɔn bin fɔ kɛr di sem 1.8% fɔ ɛni sayk.
Wetin di sɛshɔn sho
Martingale de tɔn bɛt we gɛt 48.65% to sikwɛns we de win 98% pan in sayk dɛn ɛn de lɔs 63 yunitmɔniYunitDi bes bɛt mɔni we sistɛm ɔ pleya de wok wit. Dɛn de ɛksplen prɔgrɛshɔn wit yunit so dat i go wok na ɛni tebul.Rid ɔl → pan di ɔda 2%. I nɔ de chenj di lɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛkt fɔ ɛni dɔla; i de mɔltiply di dɔla dɛn. Di pɔsin we bin de bɛt di sem mɔni ɔltɛm nia wi bɛt wan tɔd pan wetin wi bɛt, ɛn i lɔs, pan avrej, wan tɔd pan wetin wi lɔs. Di pleya we de rɔn dis sistɛm fɔ wan ia go win mɔs ivintɛm, bɔt i go lɔs di ia.
Ɔmɔs tɛm lɔs strik kin kam
Ivin-mɔni bɛt pan wil wit wan ziro de lɔs 19 spin pan 37. Ɛni lain na di chans se ɔl di spin dɛn insay wan strik go lɔs, ɛn wetin Martingale pleya, we de dɔbul afta ɛni lɔs, dɔn lɔs bay da tɛm de.
| lɔs wan afta di ɔda | chans | lɛk 1 pan | wetin yu dɔn lɔs te naw | nɛks bɛt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Di chans na 19/37 we yu mɔltiplay bay insɛf wan tɛm fɔ ɛni lɔs, frɔm wan spin we yu pik. Lɔng sɛshɔn gɛt bɔku spin usay dis kayn strik kin bigin, so insay wan ivintɛm i izi fɔ apin pas aw wan lain de sho.
Kwɛstyɔn dɛn
Nayn lɔs go brok am instɛd fɔ siks: 0.25% fɔ ɛni sayk, ɛn $5,110 lɔs we i apin. Di kliff nɔ de kam bɔku, bɔt i ay pas, ɛn di sem −2.70%.
I bin fɔ win 48.65% pan di tɛm, ɛn i bin fɔ lɛf di sayk na −$130 ɛni we. Natin gud nɔ de fɔ du afta Martingale dɔn brok; na jɔs di bɛt mɔni we yu pik nɛks.
Yɛs, fɔ da sɛshɔn de. Nɔto fɔ di avrej pan ɔl di sɛshɔn dɛn.
Ple wit Mat
Tray dɛn yusɛf fɔs. Ɛni ansa de ayd; opin am we yu rɛdi.
Na tebul we de frɔm $1 to $500, MartingalestratɛjiMartingalePrɔgrɛshɔn we de dɔbul di bɛt afta ɛni lɔs. Luk di Stratɛji pat fɔ si wetin i de du ɛn wetin i nɔ de du.Rid ɔl → pleya bigin wit $1 pan rɛdbɛtRɛdIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 rɛd nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: rouge.Rid ɔl → pan wil wit wan zirowilZiroDi wan grin pɔkit we nɔ ivin-mɔni, dɔzin ɔ kɔlɔm bɛt nɔ kɔba; na usay di kasino advantej kɔmɔt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: wan ziro, 0.Rid ɔl →. Ɔmɔs lɔs wan afta di ɔda go stɔp di dɔbul, ɔmɔs i dɔn lɔs bay da tɛm de, ɛn ɔmɔs tɛm dat de apin?
Sho di ansa
Ansa Nayn lɔs: $511 dɔn lɔs, ɛn di nɛks bɛt go bi $512. I de apin wan tɛm pan lɛk 403 sikwɛns.
Di bɛt mɔni dɛn na 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 ɛn 256: togɛda $511. Di nɔmba tɛn bɛt go bi $512, pas di limit. $500 bɛt we win stil de lɛf di pleya $11 dɔŋ; wan we lɔs de lɛf am $1,011 dɔŋ.
Rɛd de lɔs wit chans 19/37, so nayn lɔs wan afta di ɔda gɛt chans fɔ (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, wan tɛm pan lɛk 403 sikwɛns. Ɛni sikwɛns we dɔn de win $1, so di pleya fɔ ɛkspɛkt lɛk $402 smɔl win bifo di wan $511 lɔs, ɛn di 2.70% pan ɔl wetin i bɛt stil de lɔs pan avrej.
Pan wil wit dɔbul ziro di chans na (20/38)⁹, wan tɛm pan lɛk 323. Bollman (2021) print “lɛk 1 pan 833”, we na (18/38)⁹, di chans fɔ nayn win wan afta di ɔda.
Smɔl jok fɔ ɛz di maynd
Fɔti-wan smɔl win ɛn wan big lɔs. Na dat na di ɔl sistɛm.
Usay wi gɛt am frɔm
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”