Rulɛt spin we nɔ dipen pan ɔda wan
Ɛni spin de bigin frɔm natin.
Di rizɔlt fɔ wan spin nɔ de du natin to di nɛks wan. Ɛni kalkul pan dis sayt de tinap pan da tin de.
Wetin “nɔ dipen” min
p(rɛdbɛtRɛdIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 rɛd nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: rouge.Rid ɔl → pan spin 2 | rɛd pan spin 1) = p(rɛd) = 18/37. If yu tek wetin dɔn apin bifo, natin nɔ chenj. Ɔt nɔmbalay-lay tɔkƆt nɔmbaNɔmba we dɔn kam mɔ pas aw yu ɛkspɛkt nɔ te. Pan fɛr wil, i nɔ de tɛl yu natin bɔt wetin de kam.Rid ɔl →, kol nɔmbalay-lay tɔkKol nɔmbaNɔmba we nɔ kam fɔ bɔku spin. Pan fɛr wil, i nɔ de tɛl yu natin bɔt di spin dɛn we de kam.Rid ɔl → ɛn kɔla we “fɔ kam” na tin dɛn we de tɔk bɔt wetin dɔn pas, nɔto wetin go kam. Ɛni wan pan dɛn de tinap pan di lay se rulɛt spin de dipen pan wan ɔda. Fɔ tɔk am fɔmal wan, di prɔbabilitimatematiksPrɔbabilitiDi chans fɔ wan rizɔlt, frɔm 0 to 1 ɔ frɔm 0% to 100%. Wan nɔmba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Rid ɔl → fɔ ɛni sikwens na di prɔbabiliti dɛn fɔ ɛni wan spin we yu mɔltipay. Na dat nɔmɔ mek di mɔltipay rul pan di prɔbabiliti pej de wok.
Wetin mek “rulɛt spin de dipen pan wan ɔda” nɔ tru fɔ fizik
Pɔsin de trowe di bɔlikwipmɛntBɔlDi smɔl bɔl we dɛn trowe na di rod agens di rotɔ. Di nyu bɔl dɛn na ivorine ɔ Teflon, 18–21 mm.Rid ɔl → wit an, wit spid we de chenj bay smɔl smɔl pat fɔ mita pan sɛkɔn. I de go rawnd rod we in rɔb de chenj wit dɔst ɛn wata na di ɛr. I de nak wan pan et diflɛktaikwipmɛntDiflɛktaWan pan di mɛtal tin dɛn na di slop we de skata di bɔl we de fɔdɔm. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: canoe, diamond, pin.Rid ɔl → wit angul we ɔl dɛn tin ya de sɛt. I de jɔmp pan pɔkit wɔlikwipmɛntPɔkit wɔlDi mɛtal tin we sheb tu pɔkit na di wil.Rid ɔl → dɛn, ɛn wetin dɛn de du to bɔl we de go 1 m/s na kayɔs, lɛk aw sayɛns de tɔk am. Natin bɔt di rizɔlt we bin kam bifo nɔ de lɛf insay ɛni wan pan dɛn tin ya. Di rotɔikwipmɛntRotɔDi pat fɔ di wil we de tɔn ɛn we kɛr di pɔkit dɛn.Rid ɔl → na di sem rotɔ. Na di wan ples dat we dipen kin ayd, ɛn dat na di kwɛstyɔn fɔ wil we gɛt bayas.
Wetin de kɔmɔt frɔm am
Ɛni bɛt sistɛm na fɔnkshɔn fɔ rizɔlt dɛn we dɔn pas. If di rizɔlt dɛn we dɔn pas nɔ gɛt ɛni infɔmeshɔn bɔt di nɛks spin, nɔ dis kayn fɔnkshɔn nɔ kin mek di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktDi avrej rizɔlt fɔ ɛni bɛt if yu ple lɔng tɛm. −1/37 fɔ di bɛt mɔni fɔ ɛni nɔmal Yuropian bɛt.Rid ɔl → fɔ di nɛks bɛt bɛtɛ. Dis na di fɔmal ɔgyumɛnt agens sistɛm dɛn. Na dat mek wi kin rayt di stratɛji pej dɛn bifo tɛm, ivin fɔ sistɛm we nɔbɔdi nɔ mek yet: di pruf nɔ de dipen pan di rul.
Wetɛm i nɔ go wok
Nɔmɔ if di wil gɛt bayas fɔ fizik ɔ if pɔsin kin no bifo aw di dila go lɛf di bɔl. Dɛn tin ya na tɔpik fɔ di Lab. Ivin de, di dipen de pan fizik, nɔto pan di rizɔlt dɛn we dɔn pas: pɔkitikwipmɛntPɔkitWan pan di 37 smɔl ples dɛn wit nɔmba pan di rotɔ. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: slot, kɔp.Rid ɔl → we gɛt bayas gɛt mɔ chans ɛni spin, nɔto mɔ chans afta i dɔn “kol”. Di data frɔm di spin dɛn we dɔn pas go bi pruf bɔt di wil, ɛn dat difrɛn frɔm patɛn na di rizɔlt dɛn.
Fɔ nɔ dipen na tin we yu de tek se i tru
Yu kin mɔltipay chans nɔmɔ if di tin dɛn nɔ de dipen pan wan ɔda, ɛn rulɛt wil gɛt da rayt bikɔs fɔ fizik. Ɔda ples, yu fɔ chɛk am. Na 1999, Sally Clark, wan Inglish lɔya, bin gɛt kɔnvikshɔn se i kil in tu bebi bɔy pikin. Wan pikin dɔkta bin tɛl di jɔri se di chans fɔ tu bebi day we dɛn de slip na wan famili lɛk in yon na 1 na 73 milyɔn. I bin gɛt da nɔmba bay we i skwɛ 1 na 8,543, di chans fɔ wan. Fɔ skwɛ am na lɛk se di tu day na tu spin pan wil. Bɔt brɔda dɛn de sheb jin ɛn os, so afta wan bebi day so, di sɛkɔn wan gɛt mɔ chans bad bad wan pas di fɔs wan. Di Royal Statistical Society bin tɔk am bifo ɔlman na 2001, ɛn dɛn bin pul Clark in kɔnvikshɔn na di sɛkɔn apil na 2003, afta mɛdikal pruf we dɛn nɔ bin sho bifo kam na layt. Hunacek (2025) de yuz di kes fɔ tich di rul we dis pej de tinap pan: mɔltipay nɔmɔ wetin nɔ de dipen pan wan ɔda.
Fɔ nɔ dipen ɛn RNG tebul
Sɔftwia tebul de pul ɛni rizɔlt frɔm sɛtifay RNG (mashin we de pik nɔmba ɛni kayn we), we dɛn tɛst fɔ dis tin rayt rayt: se wan pul nɔ de dipen pan di wan bifo, fɔ milyɔn milyɔn pul. Di wil we de muv na di skrin na fɔ fayn nɔmɔ. RNG tebul we sho se i de dipen go fel di sɛtifikeshɔn. Dat na tɛst we tranga pas ɛni wan we pleya kin du.
Kwɛstyɔn dɛn
Nɔto pan wan pɔkit. Sɔntɛm, if i du di sem tin ɔltɛm, i kin mek am fɔdɔm pan wan sɛktawilSɛktaPɔkit dɛn we de fala wan ɔda na wan pat fɔ di wil, nɔto grup na di bɛt tebul.Rid ɔl → mɔ tɛm pas chans; luk dila sigrichɔ na di Lab. Studio dɛn de chenj aw dɛn de lɛf di bɔl fɔ stɔp am.
Fɔ bayas analisis afta tawzin tawzin spin, na tiori. Fɔ di nɛks spin, nɔ.
Ple wit Mat
Tray dɛn yusɛf fɔs. Ɛni ansa de ayd; opin am we yu rɛdi.
Bɛt we yu put bifo tu spin de pe ivin mɔni if di sɛkɔn nɔmba ay pas di fɔs wan. If dɛn ivin, i lɔs, ɛn 0 de kɔnt as di nɔmba we lɔ pas ɔl. Ɔmɔs i de kɔst pan Yuropian wil?
Sho di ansa
Ansa 2.70% rayt rayt, di sem lɛk rɛdbɛtRɛdIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 rɛd nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: rouge.Rid ɔl →.
Di tu spin nɔ de dipen pan wan ɔda, so di sɛkɔn nɔmba gɛt di sem chans fɔ ay pas di fɔs wan as fɔ lɔ pas am. Di ɔnli ɔda tin we kin apin na fɔ ivin, di sem nɔmba tu tɛm, wit prɔbabilitimatematiksPrɔbabilitiDi chans fɔ wan rizɔlt, frɔm 0 to 1 ɔ frɔm 0% to 100%. Wan nɔmba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Rid ɔl → 1/37.
So di bɛt de win wit prɔbabiliti (1 − 1/37)/2 = 18/37, rayt rayt di chans fɔ rɛd, ɛn i de kɔst di sem 2.70%.
If yu bin kin put am afta yu si di fɔs nɔmba, i go bi gift: afta 0 i de win 36 tɛm insay 37. Na dat mek bɛt lɛk dis fɔ klos bifo di fɔs spin.
Smɔl jok fɔ ɛz di maynd
Ɛni spin de bigin frɔm natin. Ɛni kalkul ya de dipen pan am.
Usay wi gɛt am frɔm
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling.
- Royal Statistical Society. “Statement regarding statistical issues in the Sally Clark case.”