Lay-lay tɔk: nɔmba ‘fɔ kam’
“Sɛvintin nɔ kam insay 150 spin. I dɔn tɛm fɔ kam.” I nɔ dɔn tɛm.
Nɔmba we nɔ kam fɔ lɔng tɛm gɛt di sem chans fɔ kam pan di nɛks spin lɛk ɛni ɔda nɔmba: 1/37. Di bilif se “i dɔn tɛm fɔ kam” na di gambula in mistek wit rizɔlt bɔd we dɛn tay pan am.
Wetin dɛn se
Kasino dɛn de sho di las 20 te to 500 rizɔlt, ɛn bɔku tɛm dɛn de mak “kol” nɔmba dɛn we nɔ kam fɔ sɔm tɛm. Pleya dɛn de rid di bɔd, si se 17 nɔ kam fɔ 150 spin, ɛn bɛt pan am bikɔs dɛn se i fɔ dɔn tɛm fɔ kam. Di tinkin na dis: if yu ple lɔng tɛm, ɛni nɔmba de kam 1/37 pan di tɛm, so nɔmba we de biyan fɔ kach ɔp.
Wetin mek i rɔng
Di spin dɛn nɔ dipen pan wan ɔda. Di bɔlikwipmɛntBɔlDi smɔl bɔl we dɛn trowe na di rod agens di rotɔ. Di nyu bɔl dɛn na ivorine ɔ Teflon, 18–21 mm.Rid ɔl → nɔ no se 17 nɔ kam, ɛn di pɔkitikwipmɛntPɔkitWan pan di 37 smɔl ples dɛn wit nɔmba pan di rotɔ. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: slot, kɔp.Rid ɔl → stil big lɛk aw i bin big. Di prɔpɔshɔn fɔ lɔng tɛm de kam nia bikɔs i de dilyut, nɔto bikɔs i de kɔrɛkt: afta ɔda 10,000 spin, di 150-spin gap na jɔs smɔl tin we yu go rawnd, nɔto bikɔs 17 kam ɛkstra bɔku tɛm bɔt bikɔs di sampul gro. Di lɔ fɔ big nɔmbamatematiksLɔ fɔ big nɔmbaDi avrej fɔ rizɔlt dɛn we nɔ dipen pan wan ɔda de go nia di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt as di nɔmba fɔ tray de bɔku.Rid ɔl → nɔ se ɛni nɔmba fɔ kach ɔp; i jɔs se di tin dɛn we bin muf bifo go smɔl if yu kɔmpia dɛn wit ɔl di tɔtal.
Wetin mek i de fil lɛk se i rayt
Bikɔs pan ɛni ɔda pat pan layf, if sɔntin nɔ kam, dat min se i nia fɔ kam: bɔs we nɔ kam fɔ twɛnti minit gɛt mɔ chans fɔ kam insay di nɛks fayv. Dat na bikɔs bɔs dɛn gɛt taym-tebul. Rulɛt nɔ gɛt taym-tebul; i gɛt prɔbabilitimatematiksPrɔbabilitiDi chans fɔ wan rizɔlt, frɔm 0 to 1 ɔ frɔm 0% to 100%. Wan nɔmba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Rid ɔl →, ɛn prɔbabiliti nɔto kwota. Di filin rayt fɔ mɔs pan di wɔl, bɔt i rɔng fɔ di wil.
Di tɛst
Rayt wan ɔndrɛd “kol” nɔmba frɔm rizɔlt bɔd dɛn ɛn bɛt pan ɛni wan fɔ di nɛks 37 spin. Ɔmɔs tɛm dɛn go kam na 1/37 fɔ ɛni spin, di sem lɛk ɛni nɔmba we yu pik ɛni kayn we, plɔs ɔ mayns smɔl nɔys. Di rizɔlt bɔd de tɔk bɔt wetin dɔn pas. I nɔ de se natin bɔt wetin go kam pan fɛr wil, ɛn pan wil we gɛt bayaslabWil we gɛt bayasWil we gɛt pɔblɛm na in bɔdi we mek sɔm pɔkit kin kam pas 1/37. I nɔ kɔmɔn, ɛn yu kin fɛn am nɔmɔ wit tawzin tawzin spin we yu dɔn rayt dɔn.Rid ɔl → (we go nid tawzin tawzin spin fɔ pruv) na di ɔt nɔmba dɛnlay-lay tɔkƆt nɔmbaNɔmba we dɔn kam mɔ pas aw yu ɛkspɛkt nɔ te. Pan fɛr wil, i nɔ de tɛl yu natin bɔt wetin de kam.Rid ɔl →, nɔto di kol wan dɛn, yu fɔ bɛt pan.
Di lay-lay tɔk we tɔn bak
“Sɛvintin ɔt, bɛt pan am” na di sem mistek wit di sayn we tɔn bak. Di tu bilif gɛt di sem valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktDi avrej rizɔlt fɔ ɛni bɛt if yu ple lɔng tɛm. −1/37 fɔ di bɛt mɔni fɔ ɛni nɔmal Yuropian bɛt.Rid ɔl → lɛk fɔ klos yu yay ɛn pɔynt: −2.70% pan di bɛt mɔni. Pan di Tray gem, rɔn di istri ɛn kɔnt ɔmɔs tɛm kol nɔmbalay-lay tɔkKol nɔmbaNɔmba we nɔ kam fɔ bɔku spin. Pan fɛr wil, i nɔ de tɛl yu natin bɔt di spin dɛn we de kam.Rid ɔl → de kam insay di nɛks 37 spin; di ansa na lɛk 63.7%, ɛgzakt lɛk fɔ ɛni ɔda nɔmba.
Kwɛstyɔn dɛn
I de sho dɛn bikɔs pleya dɛn de aks. Di bɔd kɔrɛkt ɛn i nɔ gɛt yus.
(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: i nɔ kin apin, ɛn i stil na 1/37 di nɛks spin. If i de apin ɔltɛm pan wan wil, dat na kwɛstyɔn bɔt bayas, ɛn di ansa go bi fɔ lɛf da nɔmba de.
Nɔ.
Smɔl jok fɔ ɛz di maynd
Prɔbabiliti nɔto kwota.
Usay wi gɛt am frɔm
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.