Prɔblɛm: tu dɔzin ɛn wan chip

Di prɔblɛm

Yu bɛt $10 pan di fɔs dɔzinbɛtDɔzin1–12, 13–24 ɔ 25–36, i de pe 2:1.Rid ɔl →, $10 pan di sɛkɔn dɔzin ɛn $1 pan zirowilZiroDi wan grin pɔkit we nɔ ivin-mɔni, dɔzin ɔ kɔlɔm bɛt nɔ kɔba; na usay di kasino advantej kɔmɔt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: wan ziro, 0.Rid ɔl →. (a) Wetin na di rizɔlt dɛn we kin kam, ɛn dɛn prɔbabiliti? (b) Wetin na di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktDi avrej rizɔlt fɔ ɛni bɛt if yu ple lɔng tɛm. −1/37 fɔ di bɛt mɔni fɔ ɛni nɔmal Yuropian bɛt.Rid ɔl →? (c) Di chipmɔniChipTokɛn we min wan sɛt mɔni; yu put am na di bɛt tebul fɔ mek bɛt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: check.Rid ɔl → pan ziro de mek di bɛt bɛtɛ?

Ansa (a) ɛn (b)

Rizɔlt dɛn: bɔlikwipmɛntBɔlDi smɔl bɔl we dɛn trowe na di rod agens di rotɔ. Di nyu bɔl dɛn na ivorine ɔ Teflon, 18–21 mm.Rid ɔl → na 1–24 (24 pɔkitikwipmɛntPɔkitWan pan di 37 smɔl ples dɛn wit nɔmba pan di rotɔ. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: slot, kɔp.Rid ɔl →): wan dɔzin de pe $20, di ɔda wan de lɔs $10, ziro de lɔs $1: nɛt +$9. Bɔl na 25–36 (12 pɔkit): di tu dɔzin dɛn lɔs, ziro lɔs: −$21. Bɔl pan ziro (1 pɔkit): di dɔzin dɛn lɔs $20, ziro de pe $35: +$15. EV = (24 × 9 + 1 × 15 − 12 × 21)/37 = (216 + 15 − 252)/37 = −21/37 ≈ −$0.57 fɔ ɛni spin pan $21 we yu bɛt: 2.70%.

Ansa (c)

Wetɔt di chip pan ziro: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = (240 − 260)/37 = −20/37 ≈ −$0.54 pan $20 we yu bɛt, 2.70% bak. Di chip pan ziro dɔn tɔn di −$20 we ziro bin de gi to +$15 (i bɛtɛ bay $35 wan tɛm insay 37, we valyu $0.95 fɔ ɛni spin) ɛn i kɔst $1 pan di ɔda 36 spin (we valyu $0.97 fɔ ɛni spin). Nɛt chenj: −$0.03 fɔ ɛni spin, we na 2.70% pan di ɛkstra dɔla. Di inshɔrɛns gɛt prays ɛgzaktli lɛk ɔltin ɔda.

Wetin mek dis tru ɔltɛm

Valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt de ad. Ɛni sɛt fɔ bɛt we yu put di sem tɛm gɛt EV we na di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt fɔ ɔl di pat dɛn ad togɛda, ɛn ɛni wan pan dɛn na −1/37 pan in bɛt mɔni. So ɛni kɔmbineshɔn na −1/37 pan di tɔtal bɛt mɔni. No we fɔ put chip pan di bɛt tebulikwipmɛntBɛt tebulDi bɛt grid we dɛn print pan di tebul. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: tebul, felt, klɔt.Rid ɔl →, ilɛk ɔmɔs, nɔ de we go ɛskep dis; di Bet Builder tul go sho am fɔ ɛni sɛt we yu kin put. Wetin kɔmbineshɔn de chenj na di distribyushɔn: ɔmɔs tɛm yu de win, ɔmɔs, ɛn aw di wɔs tin bad.

Kwɛstyɔn we at pas, fɔ afta

Fɛn kɔmbineshɔn fɔ standad bɛt dɛn we kɔba ɔl 37 nɔmba. Tri dɔzin ($10 ɛni wan) plɔs $1 pan ziro: ɛni wan pan 1–36 de gi nɛt −$1 (wan dɔzin de pe $20, di ɔda tu de lɔs $20, ziro de lɔs $1), ɛn ziro de gi nɛt +$35 − $30 = +$5. EV = (36 × (−1) + 5)/37 = −31/37 pan $31 we yu bɛt: 2.70%. Yu kin mek shɔ se natin nɔ go ɛva sɔprayz yu, ɛn yu stil de pe di sem prays fɔ dat.

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