Stɛp bay stɛp: di Bond bɛt dɛn
$140 pan ay, $50 pan di siks lain 13–18, $10 pan ziro: $200 fɔ ɛni spin, 25 nɔmba kɔba. Di James Bond sprɛd fɔ twɛnti spin.
Wan sɛshɔn we wi simyulet, 20 spin, fɔ di sprɛd we dɛn de sɛl as di James Bond stratɛji. Twɛlv win fɔ $80, tri siks-lain nak fɔ $100, wan ziro fɔ $160, ɛn fɔ lɔs fɔ $200 pan 1–12. Nɛt na +$620, ɛn i nɔba go dɔŋ pas $40. Di sprɛd kɔba lɛk tu tɔd pan di wil. We wan pan di nɔmba dɛn we i nɔ kɔba kam, di ɔl $200 bɛt mɔni go.
Di plan
Pan Yuropian tebul: $140 pan 19–36, $50 pan di siks lainbɛtSiks lainSiks nɔmba na tu rɔw we de nia wan ɔda, i de pe 5:1. Na Frɛnch: sixain.Rid ɔl → 13–18, $10 pan zirowilZiroDi wan grin pɔkit we nɔ ivin-mɔni, dɔzin ɔ kɔlɔm bɛt nɔ kɔba; na usay di kasino advantej kɔmɔt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: wan ziro, 0.Rid ɔl →. Twɛnti-fayv nɔmba kɔba. Ay nɔmba de pe $140 ɛn lɔs $60: +$80. Siks-lain nɔmba de pe $250 ɛn lɔs $150: +$100. Ziro de pe $350 ɛn lɔs $190: +$160. Ɛni nɔmba frɔm 1–12 de lɔs ɔl: −$200. Valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛktDi avrej rizɔlt fɔ ɛni bɛt if yu ple lɔng tɛm. −1/37 fɔ di bɛt mɔni fɔ ɛni nɔmal Yuropian bɛt.Rid ɔl → fɔ ɛni spin na (18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5.41, we na 2.70% pan $200. Di sprɛd na bɛt we de di sem ɔltɛm, we wɛr kɔstyum.
Spin 1–10
19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29. Siks ay, wan siks lain, wan ziro, tu lɔs: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340. Balans na +$340 afta tɛn spin, wit tu spin we lɔs ɛn ɛni wan tek $200. Di ziro na spin 6 pe $160, ɛn na di wan tɛm we ziro fil lɛk padi.
Spin 11–20
5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25. Tu lɔs insay di fɔs siks spin pul di balans bak to +$280; dɔn tri ay ɛn wan siks lain klos di sɛshɔn na +$620. Twɛnti spin: 12 ay, 3 siks-lain nak, 1 ziro, 4 lɔs. Di nɛt we fɔ ɛkspɛkt na bin −$108; di rial na +$620, lɛk 1.2 standad diviyeshɔnmatematiksStandad diviyeshɔnDi skwɛ rut fɔ varians; di nɔmal distans bitwin wan rizɔlt ɛn di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt.Rid ɔl → ɔp pas wetin fɔ ɛkspɛkt. Na gud nayt.
- p10 −$2,000
- p25 −$2,000
- midul valyu −$2,000
- p75 −$2,000
- p90 +$780
Di akawnt
Ɔl di mɔni we wi bɛt na $4,000 insay twɛnti spin. Lɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksLɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt tɛm ɔl di mɔni we yu bɛt; di avrej mɔni we yu de lɔs insay wan sɛshɔn ɔ wan tɛm.Rid ɔl → na $108. Di standad diviyeshɔn fɔ wan spin na lɛk $135, so twɛnti spin gɛt standad diviyeshɔn fɔ lɛk $605; +$620 ɔ pas dat na wan nayt pan nayn. Di sem twɛnti spin wit $200 ɔltɛm pan rɛdbɛtRɛdIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 rɛd nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: rouge.Rid ɔl → bin fɔ gɛt di sem wetin fɔ ɛkspɛkt ɛn distribyushɔn we wayd pas (σ ≈ $200 fɔ ɛni spin): di sprɛd gɛt lɔ variansmatematiksVariansWan mɛzhɔ fɔ aw di rizɔlt dɛn sprɛd rawnd di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt. I ay fɔ bɛt pan wan nɔmba, i lɔ fɔ ivin-mɔni bɛt.Rid ɔl → pas ivin-mɔni bɛtbɛtIvin-mɔni bɛtRɛd/blak, ɔd/ivin, ay/lɔ. 18 nɔmba, i de pe 1:1.Rid ɔl → bikɔs i de win bɔku tɛm ɛn smɔl.
Wetin di sɛshɔn sho
Di Bond sprɛd na tri bɛt we dɛn wetin fɔ ɛkspɛkt ad kam −1/37 pan ɔl, lɛk ɛni miks fɔ di nɔmal bɛt dɛn. Wetin rial de pan am na ɔmɔs pɔkit yu kɔba: fɔ win 67.6% pan di tɛm de mek ivintɛm fil lɛk sistɛm. Di 32.4% pan di spin dɛn we lɔs de tek $200 ɛni wan, ɛn if yu ple lɔng tɛm dɛn tek ɛgzakt wetin di kalkulashɔn se. Pan ɔl di nem, i nɔ de insay Fleming in buk dɛn: in Bond de bɛt pan tu dɔzinbɛtDɔzin1–12, 13–24 ɔ 25–36, i de pe 2:1.Rid ɔl →. Na di stratɛji pamflɛt dɛn du di res.
Kwɛstyɔn dɛn
Di ay bɛt na ivin mɔni, so pan Frɛnch tebul i lɔs jɔs $70 pan ziro instɛd fɔ $140, ɛn ziro de gi +$230 nɛt instɛd fɔ +$160. Di ɛj we miks na lɛk 1.8%. I bɛtɛ, bɔt i stil na lɔs.
Di prɔpɔshɔn dɛn mek di win dɛn nia ikwal: $80, $100, $160. Ɛni prɔpɔshɔn de gi di sem ɛj.
Yɛs. Yu de bɛt $200 pan di sem 25 nɔmba ɛni spin. Di mɔni ɛn di nɔmba dɛn nɔ de chenj afta win ɔ lɔs.
Smɔl jok fɔ ɛz di maynd
Tu tɔd pan di wil. Wan tɔd pan di tɛm, yu lɔs ɔl.
Usay wi gɛt am frɔm
- Fleming, I. Casino Royale.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.