D'Alembert rulɛt stratɛji
Di D’Alembert rulɛt stratɛji de ad wan yunit afta lɔs ɛn pul wan afta win.
I nɔ de bit di wil. Na di prɔgrɛshɔnstratɛjiPrɔgrɛshɔnƐni rul we de chenj di bɛt mɔni bay di rizɔlt dɛn we dɔn pas. Nɛgativ prɔgrɛshɔn de es am afta lɔs, pɔzitiv wan afta win.Rid ɔl → we flat pas ɔl pan di wan dɛn we pipul kin yuz: di bɛt mɔni de go ɔp slo slo, di mɔni we dɔn dɔn nɔ tu big, ɛn di advantej nɔ chenj atɔl.
Waka di sistɛm
Lɔs de muf wan stɛp go ɔp. Win de muf wan stɛp go bak.
Bɛt mɔni ɛn rizɔlt de na yunit fɔ di fɔs bɛt.
Di D’Alembert rulɛt sistɛm, stɛp bay stɛp
Bɛt wan yunitmɔniYunitDi bes bɛt mɔni we sistɛm ɔ pleya de wok wit. Dɛn de ɛksplen prɔgrɛshɔn wit yunit so dat i go wok na ɛni tebul.Rid ɔl →. If yu lɔs, di nɛks bɛt big pas am wit wan yunit. If yu win, i smɔl pas am wit wan yunit, bɔt i nɔ de go dɔŋ pas wan. Na dat nɔmɔ. Pikchɔ siso: ɛni lɔs de tilt di bɛt mɔni ɔp wan stɛp ɛn ɛni win de tilt am bak. Di bilif ɔnda am na se di win ɛn di lɔs go lɛvul, so di bɛt mɔni go kam bak to di bes. Wetin mek pipul lɛk am na se ɛni pe fɔ wan win ɛn wan lɔs pan bɛt mɔni we de nia wan ɔda de gi +1 yunit nɛt: lɔs 3, win 4, nɛt +1.
Aw sɛshɔn de luk?
Saful, wit bɛt mɔni we de krip go ɔp. Bikɔs lɔs bɔku pas win 19 to 18 pan ivin mɔni, di bɛt mɔni de go ɔp smɔl smɔl ova lɔng sɛshɔn. Bikɔs di bɛt mɔni ay pas ɔl we yu dɔn de lɔs, ɛn i lɔ we yu de win, di avrej bɛt mɔni we yu de lɔs big pas di avrej we yu de win. Sɛshɔn dɛn smut pas MartingalestratɛjiMartingalePrɔgrɛshɔn we de dɔbul di bɛt afta ɛni lɔs. Luk di Stratɛji pat fɔ si wetin i de du ɛn wetin i nɔ de du.Rid ɔl →, wit mɔni we dɔn dɔnmɔniMɔni we dɔn dɔnAw di gambul mɔni de fɔdɔm frɔm in ay pɔynt to lɔ pɔynt we kam afta, insay wan sɛshɔn. Di maksimɔm drawdown na di big wan pas ɔl.Rid ɔl → we nɔ tu big ɛn nɔ kliff, ɛn dɛn de lɔs smɔl mɔ pas bɛt di sem mɔni ɔltɛmstratɛjiBɛt di sem mɔni ɔltɛmFɔ bɛt di sem mɔni ɛni spin. Na dis ɛni prɔgrɛshɔn de kɔmpia wit.Rid ɔl → pan avrej bikɔs di avrej bɛt mɔni ay pas.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- midul valyu −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Di D’Alembert sistɛm de wok?
Nɔ. Sɛshɔn we lɛvul de win, bɔt sɛshɔn dɛn nɔ de lɛvul ɔltɛm. Afta w win ɛn l lɔs pan bɛt mɔni we de nia wan ɔda, di nɛt rizɔlt na w − l yunit plɔs smɔl kɔrɛkshɔn fɔ usay yu bin de na di lada. If w = l, di rizɔlt na ɛksakli +w yunit, we luk lɛk prɔfit we shɔ. Di trik na se w = l nɔto wetin fɔ ɛkspɛkt: ova 37 spin yu fɔ ɛkspɛkt 18 win ɛn 19 lɔs. Wan lɔs we pas pan bɛt mɔni we dɔn klaym to, lɛk, 8 yunit kɔst pas et pan di +1 pe dɛn. Wetin fɔ ɛkspɛkt kam to −1/37 pan ɔl di mɔni we yu bɛtmɔniƆl di bɛt mɔniƆl di mɔni we yu bɛt na wan sɛshɔn ɔ wan tɛm, wit di win mɔni we yu bɛt bak. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: handle, action.Rid ɔl →, lɛk aw i fɔ bi.
Wetin mek shɔt sɛshɔn dɛn kin win bɔku tɛm?
Di sɛshɔn we lɛvul na pat pan wan rul we kɔba ɛni sɛshɔn. Kɔl D di nɔmba fɔ lɔs mayn di nɔmba fɔ win. Sɛshɔn fɔ N spin we bigin wit wan yunit de dɔn na (N − D²)/2 − D yunit, as lɔng as nɔ bɛt fɔ wan yunit nɔ win (afta win lɛk dat, di bɛt mɔni nɔ gɛt usay fɔ go dɔŋ pas). If D = 0, dat na +N/2, di +w na di pat we de ɔp. Ɛni lɔs we pas de kɔnt skwɛ: afta 100 spin, D fɔ 4 stil lɛf +38 yunit, D fɔ 8 lɛf +10, ɛn D fɔ 10 lɛf −10. Chans in wan de sprɛd D lɛk √N, tɛn afta 100 spin, ɛn na gem we nɔ gɛt zirowilZiroDi wan grin pɔkit we nɔ ivin-mɔni, dɔzin ɔ kɔlɔm bɛt nɔ kɔba; na usay di kasino advantej kɔmɔt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: wan ziro, 0.Rid ɔl →, di gɛn dɛn fɔ di bɔku sɛshɔn we lɛvul ɛn di lɔs dɛn fɔ di smɔl wan we nɔ lɛvul de kansɛl ɛksakli. Di ziro de ad wan ɛkstra lɔs ɛvri 37 spin pan avrej, ɛn bikɔs D de skwɛ, in kɔst de gro kwik pas di sɛshɔn. Bɔku sɛshɔn te to 100 spin de dɔn wit prɔfit; di avrej nɔ de ɛva, ɛn afta sɔm ɔndrɛd spin, bɔku sɛshɔn de lɔs bak.
Ɛn if yu tɔn am bak?
Contra-D’Alembert, we pipul kɔl bak D’Alembert we tɔn bak, de ad wan yunit afta win ɛn pul wan afta lɔs. I de lɛk di fɔs wan na lukin glas ɛksakli. As lɔng as nɔ bɛt fɔ wan yunit nɔ lɔs, sɛshɔn fɔ N spin de dɔn na (D² − N)/2 + D yunit, usay D naw na di win mayn di lɔs. Sɛshɔn we lɛvul de lɔs af yunit fɔ ɛni spin, ɛn na ɔnli strik fɔ win we pas di lɔs fayn fayn de gi prɔfit. So bɔku sɛshɔn de lɔs smɔl ɛn smɔl pan dɛn de win bɔku, di ɔda we di fɔs wan in shep, ɛn di avrej na di sem 2.70% pan di mɔni we yu bɛt.
Udat na d’Alembert?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, matimatishan ɛn wan pan di ɛdita dɛn fɔ di Encyclopédie, bin agyu na atikul fɔ 1754 se afta strik fɔ ed, tel go kam mɔ. I bin rɔng, ɛn di mistek we de wit in nem na wan kayn gambula in mistek. Gambula dɛn we bin gɛt di sem bilif gi di D’Alembert sistɛm na rulɛt in nem leta. Nɔto in mek am, ɛn i kin bi se i nɔ bin go sɔpɔt am.
Ɔda kayn de?
Contra-D’Alembert, we wi tɔk bɔt ɔp, de biev lɛk saful ParolistratɛjiParoliPɔzitiv prɔgrɛshɔn: dɔbul afta yu win, bigin bak afta yu lɔs ɔ afta tri win wan afta di ɔda. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: Martingale we tɔn bak.Rid ɔl →. Sɔm pleya de ad tu yunit afta lɔs ɛn pul wan afta win, we de mek di lada stip go nia Martingale. Ɔl di kayn dɛn gɛt di sem lɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksLɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt tɛm ɔl di mɔni we yu bɛt; di avrej mɔni we yu de lɔs insay wan sɛshɔn ɔ wan tɛm.Rid ɔl → fɔ ɛni yunit we yu bɛt.
Simulɛta · D'Alembert
2,000 sɛshɔn wit ivin-mɔni bɛt, we bigin wit $1,000 gambul mɔni.
Fɔs bɛt $10 · tebul limit $500 · 100 spin fɔ ɛni sɛshɔn
Ɔmɔs tɛm lɔs strik kin kam
Ivin-mɔni bɛt pan wil wit wan ziro de lɔs 19 spin pan 37. Ɛni lain na di chans se ɔl di spin dɛn insay wan strik go lɔs, ɛn wetin D’Alembert pleya, we de ad wan fɔs bɛt afta ɛni lɔs, dɔn lɔs bay da tɛm de.
| lɔs wan afta di ɔda | chans | lɛk 1 pan | wetin yu dɔn lɔs te naw | nɛks bɛt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Di chans na 19/37 we yu mɔltiplay bay insɛf wan tɛm fɔ ɛni lɔs, frɔm wan spin we yu pik. Lɔng sɛshɔn gɛt bɔku spin usay dis kayn strik kin bigin, so insay wan ivintɛm i izi fɔ apin pas aw wan lain de sho.
Kwɛstyɔn dɛn
I nɔ gɛt kliff, so na di nɛgativ prɔgrɛshɔn we saful pas ɔl. I nɔ chip pas bɛt di sem mɔni ɔltɛm; i kɔst smɔl mɔ.
Na di tebul limittebulTebul limitDi smɔl ɛn di big bɛt we dɛn alaw. Na di big limit de stɔp prɔgrɛshɔn dɛn we de dɔbul.Rid ɔl → ɔ yu gambul mɔnimɔniGambul mɔniƆl di mɔni we yu dɔn put asay fɔ ple. Fɔ manej yu gambul mɔni min fɔ disayd ɔmɔs pan am yu go risk fɔ ɛni bɛt ɛn fɔ ɛni sɛshɔn.Rid ɔl → nɔmɔ. Ova lɔng sɛshɔn we yu de lɔs, i de klaym ɔltɛm.
Ple wit Mat
Tray dɛn yusɛf fɔs. Ɛni ansa de ayd; opin am we yu rɛdi.
Yu ple D’Alembert pan rɛdbɛtRɛdIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 rɛd nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: rouge.Rid ɔl → fɔ 50 spin, yu bigin wit wan yunitmɔniYunitDi bes bɛt mɔni we sistɛm ɔ pleya de wok wit. Dɛn de ɛksplen prɔgrɛshɔn wit yunit so dat i go wok na ɛni tebul.Rid ɔl →, ɛn yu nɔ ɛva win bɛt fɔ wan yunit (afta win lɛk dat, di bɛt nɔ go gɛt usay fɔ go dɔŋ). Yu dɔn wit 27 lɔs ɛn 23 win. Ɔmɔs yunit yu de ɔp ɔ dɔŋ? Ɛn wit 29 lɔs ɛn 21 win?
Sho di ansa
Ansa +13 yunit wit 27 lɔs, −15 yunit wit 29. Tu spin insay fifti we go di ɔda we de kɔst 28 yunit.
Kɔl D di lɔs dɛn mayn di win dɛn. Di rizɔlt na (N − D²)/2 − D fɔ N spin. Wit 27 lɔs ɛn 23 win, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Wit 29 ɛn 21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Wetin mek di rul wok: di bɛt ɔltɛm na wan yunit plɔs di lɔs dɛn te naw mayn di win dɛn te naw. Ɛni lɔs we win afta dat kansɛl de mek pe, lɔs s ɛn dɔn win s + 1, we de gi nɛt +1 yunit, lɛk aw di tebul ɔp sho. Insay N spin, (N − D)/2 kayn pe lɛk dat de fɔm, we valyu +(N − D)/2. Di D lɔs we lɛf, dɛn bin put dɛn bay bɛt 1, 2 … D we yu de go ɔp ɛn nɔbɔdi nɔ ɛva kansɛl dɛn; dɛn de kɔst 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Togɛda: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Di skwɛ na ɔl di stori. Sɛshɔn we balans de pe af yunit ɛni spin, ɛn ɛni stɛp we kɔmɔt frɔm balans de kɔst mɔ pas di wan bifo am.
Yu ple D’Alembert we tɔn bak pan rɛd fɔ 100 spin, yu bigin wit wan yunit, ɛn nɔ bɛt fɔ wan yunit nɔ ɛva lɔs. Yu dɔn wit 52 win ɛn 48 lɔs. Usay yu de? Ɛn wit 60 win ɛn 40 lɔs?
Sho di ansa
Ansa −38 yunit wit 52 win, +170 wit 60. Smɔl lid pan win stil de lɔs; na ɔnli big wan de pe.
Kɔl D di win dɛn mayn di lɔs dɛn. Di rizɔlt na (D² − N)/2 + D fɔ N spin.
52 win ɛn 48 lɔs: D = 4, so (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
60 win ɛn 40 lɔs: D = 20, so (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Wetin mek: ɛni win we lɔs afta dat kansɛl de mek pe, win bay s ɛn dɔn lɔs bay s + 1, we de gi nɛt −1. Di D win we lɛf, dɛn bin put dɛn bay bɛt 1, 2 … D we yu de go ɔp ɛn nɔbɔdi nɔ ɛva kansɛl dɛn; dɛn de briŋ D(D + 1)/2. Insay N spin, (N − D)/2 pe de fɔm, so di tɔtal na D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Na di fɔs D’Alembert in rul wit di sayn dɛn tɔn bak: de, balans de win af yunit ɛni spin ɛn we balans nɔ de, yu de sɔfa; ya, balans de kɔst af yunit ɛni spin ɛn we balans nɔ de, yu de gɛt.
Smɔl jok fɔ ɛz di maynd
Dɛn gi am di nem fɔ matimatishan we nɔ ɔndastand di kɔyn.
Usay wi gɛt am frɔm
- RouletteDoc. Aw di stratɛji de ɛn ɛgzampul dɛn.
- Roulette77. Aw di stratɛji de ɛn ɛgzampul dɛn.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.