Stɛp bay stɛp: wan D’Alembert ivintɛm
Wan yunit ɔp afta lɔs, wan yunit dɔŋ afta win, rɛd ɛni spin fɔ wan ɔndrɛd spin. Di sistɛm we saful pas ɔl, ɛn wetin da safulnɛs de kɔst.
Wan D’Alembert sɛshɔn we wi simyulet, 100 spin, $5 fɔ wan yunit. Di bɛt mɔni go bak to $5 fayv tɛm, i krip go ɔp to $80 we tin bin bad, ɛn i ɛnd na $55, wit di sɛshɔn $40 dɔŋ. Na di sistɛm we de fil lɛk balans, bɔt i nɔto balans.
Waka di sistɛm
Lɔs de muf wan stɛp go ɔp. Win de muf wan stɛp go bak.
Bɛt mɔni ɛn rizɔlt de na yunit fɔ di fɔs bɛt.
Di plan
Bigin wit wan yunitmɔniYunitDi bes bɛt mɔni we sistɛm ɔ pleya de wok wit. Dɛn de ɛksplen prɔgrɛshɔn wit yunit so dat i go wok na ɛni tebul.Rid ɔl →, $5, pan rɛdbɛtRɛdIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 rɛd nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: rouge.Rid ɔl →. Afta lɔs, ad wan yunit; afta win, pul wan, bɔt nɔ go ɔnda wan. Di tiori (d’Alembert nɔ bin tɔk am, bɔt pipul de blem am fɔ am) se win ɛn lɔs go balans, so fɔ ɛni wan lɔs ɛn wan win, wi de wan yunit ɔp. Bɔt di matematiks se rɛd de win 48.65% pan di spin dɛn, so di lɔs dɛn de pas di win dɛn lɛk wan pan fɔti, ɛn di bɛt mɔni de krip go ɔp as tɛm de go.
Spin 1–30
Fɔtin rɛd, fiftin blakbɛtBlakIvin-mɔni bɛt pan di 18 blak nɔmba. Na Frɛnch: noir.Rid ɔl →, wan zirowilZiroDi wan grin pɔkit we nɔ ivin-mɔni, dɔzin ɔ kɔlɔm bɛt nɔ kɔba; na usay di kasino advantej kɔmɔt. Dɛn kin kɔl am bak: wan ziro, 0.Rid ɔl →. Di bɛt mɔni go ɔp to $20 we tri lɔs kam wan afta di ɔda, i kam bak to $5 na spin 18, ɛn i go ɔp to $25 na di ɛnd fɔ dis pat. Nɛt +$20. Ɛni lɔs-ɛn-win gi wan yunit lɛk aw dɛn se; di ɛkstra lɔs dɛn it dɛn. I de fil lɛk slo pamp we de wok mɔs tɛm.
Spin 31–65
Di bad tɛm. Tatin rɛd agens twɛnti-tu we nɔto rɛd, ɛn sɛvin lɔs kam wan afta di ɔda insay. Frɔm $5 na spin 41, di bɛt mɔni klam wan yunit bay wan yunit te i rich $80, ɛn ɛni $75 lɔs pwɛl fiftin pan di $5 win dɛn we bin dɔn kam. Nɛt −$485 fɔ dis pat; di tɔtal te naw −$465. Natin big nɔ apin pan ɛni wan spin; na di slo krip du am.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- midul valyu −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$885
Spin 66–100
Twɛnti rɛd agens fiftin we nɔto rɛd, ɛn di bɛt mɔni de kam dɔŋ frɔm $80 to $55, wit stɛp dɛn fɔ $5. Ɛni win we di bɛt mɔni ay de briŋ rial mɔni bak: $75 win afta $70 lɔs de gi +$5 fɔ di lɔs ɛn di win togɛda, bɔt di tu big. Nɛt +$425 fɔ dis pat; di ɛnd na −$40.
Di akawnt
Di avrej bɛt mɔni na lɛk $37, so ɔl di mɔni we wi bɛt na lɛk $3,670, we pɔsin we bɛt $5 ɔltɛm bin fɔ bɛt $500. Lɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktmatematiksLɔs we fɔ ɛkspɛktValyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt tɛm ɔl di mɔni we yu bɛt; di avrej mɔni we yu de lɔs insay wan sɛshɔn ɔ wan tɛm.Rid ɔl → pan $3,670 na $99; di rial wan na −$40, ɔnda wan standad diviyeshɔnmatematiksStandad diviyeshɔnDi skwɛ rut fɔ varians; di nɔmal distans bitwin wan rizɔlt ɛn di valyu we fɔ ɛkspɛkt.Rid ɔl →. Di we di bɛt mɔni de krip go ɔp na ɔl wetin di sistɛm de du: mɔ mɔni pan di tebul, di sem 2.70% kɔmɔt pan ɛni dɔla, ɛn di rizɔlt dɛn sprɛd mɔ.
Wetin di sɛshɔn sho
D’Alembert na di gambula in mistek we dɛn rayt as rul fɔ bɛt: i tink se win ɛn lɔs go ivin kwik so dat di bɛt mɔni go kam bak dɔŋ. If yu ple lɔng tɛm, dɛn de ivin bikɔs di difrɛns de smɔl insay bɔku spin, nɔto bikɔs sɔntin de kɔrɛkt am, ɛn natin nɔ de mek di bɛt mɔni go bak to wan yunit. Na slo sistɛm we nɔ gɛt kliff, ɛn na di slo mek pleya dɛn biliv am.
Wetin de apin if yu ple lɔng tɛm: di lɔ fɔ big nɔmba na rulɛt
Kwɛstyɔn dɛn
I nɔ kin apin bɔku. Di bɛt mɔni de gro wan yunit fɔ ɛni lɔs, i nɔ de dɔbul, so i de tek wan rili lɔng bad strik fɔ rich di limit.
Yɛs, ɛn di ruf de tɔn am to bɛt di sem mɔni ɔltɛmstratɛjiBɛt di sem mɔni ɔltɛmFɔ bɛt di sem mɔni ɛni spin. Na dis ɛni prɔgrɛshɔn de kɔmpia wit.Rid ɔl → na di ruf afta bad strik. Ɛni ruf fayn; natin pan dɛn nɔ de chenj di advantej.
Na 1754 i bin se tel go kam mɔ afta ed dɔn kam bɔku tɛm wan afta di ɔda. Gambula dɛn we gri wit am gi di sistɛm in nem. I bin fɔ shem.
Smɔl jok fɔ ɛz di maynd
Di sistɛm we saful pas ɔl. I de krip, i nɔ de fɔdɔm frɔm kliff.
Usay wi gɛt am frɔm
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.